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11 - Public Opinion: Measuring Americans' Opinions

Public Opinion in American Democracy

Definition and Challenges

Public opinion in American political discourse involves two main elements:

  • Individual Beliefs and Attitudes: Each person's own viewpoints on politics and policies.
  • Aggregation of Preferences: The collective blend of these individual preferences into what we term "public opinion."

The existence and understanding of public opinion present challenges due to:

  • Individuals' Undefined Preferences: Many individuals may not have well-formed opinions on political matters.
  • Complexity in Aggregation: Even when individual preferences are known, combining them into a meaningful collective public opinion can be problematic.

The role of public opinion is pivotal in a representative democracy, as it guides elected officials in representing their constituents' desires in the policymaking process.

Perspectives on Public Opinion

The debate around public opinion in the U.S. generally falls into two viewpoints:

  1. Skepticism on Meaningful Opinions: It argues that many citizens either lack opinions or cannot express meaningful views on a wide range of issues.

  2. Potential for Collective Wisdom: This viewpoint suggests that, despite individuals' lack of information, they can still form opinions through cues from political ideologies, peers, or political parties. Aggregated opinions can provide valuable signals to policymakers.

A notable critique by Tom Toles via an editorial cartoon highlighted the perceived disconnect between public sentiment and political action, especially in response to crises like the 2008 financial meltdown.

Knowledge and Political Engagement

  • Concerns About Political Knowledge: Research indicates a troubling lack of basic political knowledge among Americans, such as identifying the branches of government or constitutional rights, which poses a risk to the effectiveness of democracy.

  • Demographic Disparities: Younger, lower-income, and minority groups consistently show lower levels of political knowledge, a gap that has not significantly narrowed over time.

Optimistic Views on Public Opinion

Despite widespread lack of detailed policy opinions among Americans, some scholars argue that:

  • Aggregate Wisdom: The collective opinions of individuals can still offer useful insights for decision-making.

  • Gut Rationality and Social Cues: People use their lifetime experiences, advice from their social circles, and party identification to make informed political choices, even in the absence of detailed policy knowledge.

  • Wisdom of Crowds: The concept that individuals, despite not having all the facts, can collectively make rational decisions about political issues and policies.

Measuring Public Opinion: Methods and Challenges

Communication and Representation

For effective representation in democracy, two key requirements must be met:

  1. Voters' Opinions and Preferences: These must be communicable to elected representatives.
  2. Elected Officials' Responsiveness: Officials must act according to these expressed preferences.

However, capturing the broad preferences of citizens presents challenges, as not all methods of communication or opinion measurement are equally effective or representative.

Methods of Measuring Public Opinion

Direct Communication

  • Characteristics: Engaging directly with elected officials through emails, calls, or town meetings.
  • Limitations: Often reflects the opinions of a motivated minority rather than the general populace.

Elections

  • Role: Serve as broad measures of public preference.
  • Limitations: Not all eligible voters participate, and elections often focus on a narrow set of issues, limiting their utility in gauging opinions on broader policy matters.

Focus Groups

  • Definition: Small, moderated discussions on specific topics.
  • Advantages: Provide in-depth insights into public attitudes.
  • Limitations: Cannot represent the wider constituency due to their small size.

Scientific Polling

  • Concept: Uses a representative sample to infer the opinions of a larger population.
  • Key Elements:
    • Random Selection: Ensures each potential respondent has an equal chance of being surveyed.
    • Representative Sample: Mirrors the demographics of the larger population.
    • Weighting: Adjusts results to reflect demographic proportions accurately.

Types of Surveys

  • Straw Polls: Informal, often unrepresentative surveys at events.
  • Entrance/Exit Polls: Conducted at the beginning or end of an event, offering insights into participant views but with potential biases.
  • Benchmark Polls: Assess support at the start of a campaign.
  • Tracking Polls: Monitor support over a campaign's duration.

Challenges in Polling

Sampling Error

  • Definition: The margin of error due to the poll being a sample of a larger population.
  • Impact: Affects the reliability of poll results, with smaller samples leading to larger errors.

Methodology Issues

  • Random Digit Dialing: Faces challenges from caller ID and non-response bias.
  • Internet Polls: Lack randomness and thus are not considered scientifically reliable.

Survey Design

  • Question Order and Wording: Can significantly influence respondents' answers.
  • Interviewer Effects: The characteristics of interviewers can impact survey responses.

Push Polls

  • Nature: Disguised as surveys, these are actually negative campaign tactics aimed at influencing voters rather than measuring opinion.

2016 Presidential Election: A Case Study in Polling Limitations

  • Outcome Misestimation: Most polls incorrectly predicted the election result, underscoring the difficulties in accurately capturing public opinion.
  • Challenges:
    • Non-Response Bias: Certain demographics, like less educated white voters, were underrepresented in polls.
    • Social Desirability Bias: Respondents may have been reluctant to express support for controversial candidates.
    • Identifying Likely Voters: Traditional models failed to predict turnout among irregular voters.

The Influence of Public Opinion on Democratic Representation

Understanding Patterns within American Public Opinion

Political Party Identification

  • Party identification is a strong predictor of public opinion.
  • Reactions to events like the Ferguson shooting differ sharply along party lines.

Gender Differences

  • Opinion divides along gender, with women more likely to support Democratic candidates, known as the "gender gap."

Racial and Ethnic Identity

  • Minorities emphasize social justice and equality more than white Americans.
  • Events like Ferguson highlight significant racial divides in perceptions of law enforcement and racial issues.

Utilization of Polls

Purpose and Critique

  • Polls guide elected officials, interest groups, and the media in understanding public preferences.
  • Critics argue that reliance on polls may deter leaders from making informed, independent decisions, emphasizing the potential disconnect between public opinion and factual accuracy.

Public Opinion's Role in Policymaking

Influence on Legislation

  • Public opinion can directly influence legislation, as seen with the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (PRWORA) of 1996.
  • Conversely, Congress may pass legislation contrary to public opinion if believed to be in the public's long-term interest, like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.

Policymaker's Perspective

  • The decision to follow or ignore public opinion depends on whether a lawmaker views their role as a delegate (following the will of the people) or a trustee (using their judgment).

Public Opinion and the Ferguson Response

Evolving Police Tactics

  • The response to protests in Ferguson over time shows an adaptation to public opinion, with a shift toward more measured police actions.

Political Acknowledgment

  • Political leaders and candidates began to address issues raised by Ferguson, signaling attention to public opinion on race relations.

Changing Public Opinion

Measurement and Impact

  • Public opinion is dynamic, influencing various aspects of the political process, from media coverage to legislative action.
  • Events like Ferguson underscore the evolving nature of public opinion, particularly concerning race relations in America.

Implications for Policymakers

  • Policymakers must navigate the complexities of public opinion, balancing immediate public sentiments with broader policy goals and principles.
  • Ignoring public opinion carries risks, particularly the potential for electoral backlash.